Thursday, December 18, 2008

The Sun controls the Earth's climate

Unstoppable Solar Cycles (10 min)

The persistent role of the Sun in climate forcing (The Danish National Space Center)
Over the past 20 years the solar cycle remains fully apparent in variations both of tropospheric air temperature and of ocean subsurface water temperature.

When the response of the climate system to the solar cycle is apparent in the troposphere and ocean, but not in the global surface temperature, one can only wonder about the quality of the surface temperature record. For whatever reason, it is a poor guide to Sun-driven physical processes that are still plainly persistent in the climate system.

One cannot distinguish between the effects of anthropogenic gases such as carbon dioxide and of natural greenhouse gases. For example, increased evaporation means that infrared radiation from water vapor, by far the most important greenhouse gas, will tend to provide positive feedback for any global warming, ... In any case, the most recent global temperature trend is close to zero.

The continuing rapid increase in carbon dioxide concentrations during the past 10-15 years has apparently been unable to overrule the °attening of the temperature trend as a result of the Sun settling at a high, but no longer increasing, level of magnetic activity. Contrary to the argument of Lockwood and FrÄohlich, the Sun still appears to be the main forcing agent in global climate change.
100,000-Year Climate Pattern Linked To Sun's Magnetic Cycles (Dartmouth College)
Breathing Cycles in Earth's Upper Atmosphere Linked to Solar Wind Disturbances (University of Colorado at Boulder)
Changes In Sun’s Intensity Tied To Recurrent Droughts In Maya Region (University of Florida)
Evidence For Sun-climate Link Reported By UMaine Scientists (University of Maine)
Flares From Sun's Far Side May Affect Space Weather Of Inner Planets (Swedish Institute of Space Physics)
Greater Solar Activity May Bring United States More Gray Days (NASA)
Holes In Sun's Corona Linked To Atmospheric Temperature Changes On Earth (Long Island University)
NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records (NASA)
NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate (NASA)
New Analysis Shows Earth's Lower Stratosphere In Synch With Solar Cycle (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Northern Climate, Ecosystems Driven By Cycles Of Changing Sunlight (University Of Illinois)
Regional Variation In Warming From Sun During Solar Cycle Shown By Satellite (University of Colorado)
Scientists Determine Biological And Ecosystem Changes In Polar Regions Linked To Solar Variability (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Solar Cycle Linked to Global Climate (National Science Foundation)
Sun's Direct Role In Global Warming May Be Underestimated, Duke Physicists Report (Duke University)
Sun's Magnetic Field May Impact Weather And Climate: Sun Cycle Can Predict Rainfall Fluctuations (University of New England, Australia)
Sun's Past Strength Took Toll On Tropical Glaciers, Worsens Today's Outlook (University of Alberta, Canada)
Surface Warming And The Solar Cycle (University of Washington)
The Sun's Chilly Impact On Earth (NASA)
The Sun Is More Active Now Than Over The Last 8000 Years (Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research)

Read the sunspots (R. Tim Patterson, Ph.D. Professor of Earth Science)
Solar Variability and Climate Change (Willie Soon, Ph.D. Astrophysicist)
The Sun Also Warms (Sallie Baliunas, Ph.D. Astrophysics, Willie Soon Ph.D. Astrophysicist)
Why So Hot? Don't Blame Man, Blame the Sun (Sallie Baliunas, Ph.D. Astrophysics)

Climate History and the Sun (PDF) (Sallie Baliunas Ph.D. Astrophysics, Willie Soon Ph.D. Astrophysicist)
Shining More Light on the Solar Factor (PDF) (Joseph D’Aleo, M.S. Meteorology, CCM, AMS Fellow)
Solar Cycles, Not CO2, Determine Climate (PDF) (Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D. Ph.D. D.Sc.)
The Varying Sun & Climate Change (PDF) (Sallie Baliunas, Ph.D. Astrophysics, Willie Soon Ph.D. Astrophysicist)

Peer-Reviewed Papers:

A mechanism for sun-climate connection
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, 2005)
- Sultan Hameed, Jae N. Lee

A Millennium Scale Sunspot Reconstruction: Evidence For an Unusually Active Sun Since the 1940's (PDF)
(Physical Review Letters 91, 2003)
- Ilya G. Usoskin, Sami K. Solanki, Manfred Schüssler, Kalevi Mursula, Katja Alanko

Celestial Climate Driver: A Perspective from Four Billion Years of the Carbon Cycle (PDF)
(Geoscience Canada, Volume 32, Number 1, March 2005)
- Ján Veizer

Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?
(GSA Volume 13, Issue 7, July 2003)
- Nir J. Shaviv, Ján Veizer

Climate cyclicity in late Holocene anoxic marine sediments from the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex (PDF)
(Marine Geology, Volume 242, Issues 1-3, Pages 123-140, August 6 2007)
- R. Timothy Patterson, Andreas Prokoph, Eduard Reinhardt, Helen M. Roe

Comparison of proxy records of climate change and solar forcing
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 23, Issue 4, p. 359-362, 02/1996)
- Crowley, Thomas J., Kim, Kwang-Yul

Cyclic Variation and Solar Forcing of Holocene Climate in the Alaskan Subarctic (PDF)
(Science, Vol. 301. No. 5641, pp. 1890 - 1893, September 26, 2003)
- Feng Sheng Hu et al.

Earth's Heat Source - The Sun (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 131-144(14), January 2009)
- Oliver K. Manuel

Earth's Radiative Equilibrium in the Solar Irradiance (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 85-95(11), January 2009)
- Martin Hertzberg

Evidence for a solar signature in 20th-century temperature data from the USA and Europe (PDF)
(Comptes Rendus Geosciences, Volume 340, Issue 7, Pages 421-430, July 2008)
- Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Vincent Courtillot, Elena Blanter, Mikhail Shnirman

Evidence of Solar Variation in Tree-Ring-Based Climate Reconstructions
(Solar Physics, Volume 205, Number 2, Pages 403-417, February 2002)
- M.G. Ogurtsov , G.E. Kocharov, M. Lindholm, J. Meriläinen, M. Eronen, Yu.A. Nagovitsyn

Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change
(PNAS, Vol. 97, No. 23, 12433-12438, November 7, 2000)
- Charles A. Perry, Kenneth J. Hsu

Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 40, Issue 7, Pages 1173-1180, 2007)
- Joan Feynmana

Imprint of Galactic dynamics on Earth's climate (PDF)
(Astronomische Nachrichten, Volume 327, Issue 9 , Pages 866 - 870, 10 Oct 2006)
- H. Svensmark

Is solar variability reflected in the Nile River?
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, D21114, 2006)
- Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, Yuk L. Yung

Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate
(Science, Vol. 254. no. 5032, pp. 698 - 700, November 1991)
- E. Friis-Christensen, K. Lassen

Linkages Between Solar Activity and Climatic Responses
(Energy & Environment, Volume 16, Number 2, pp. 239-254(16), March 2005)
- William J.R. Alexander

Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development (PDF)
(Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering, Vol 49 No 2, Pages 32–44, June 2007)
- William J.R. Alexander, F Bailey, D B Bredenkamp, A van der Merwe, N Willemse

Long-Period Cycles of the Sun's Activity Recorded in Direct Solar Data and Proxies
(Solar Physics, Volume 211, Numbers 1-2, December, 2002)
- M.G. Ogurtsov, Yu.A. Nagovitsyn, G.E. Kocharov, H. Jungner

Orbital Controls on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Tropical Climate
(Paleoceanogrpahy Vol. 14, No. 4, Pages 441–456, 1999)
- A. C. Clement, R. Seager, M. A. Cane

Palaeoenvironmental evidence for solar forcing of Holocene climate: linkages to solar science
(Progress in Physical Geography, Vol. 23, No. 2, 181-204, 1999)
- Frank M. Chambers, Michael I. Ogle, Jeffrey J. Blackford

Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene
(Science, Vol. 294. no. 5549, pp. 2130 - 2136, 7 December 2001)
- Gerard Bond, Bernd Kromer, Juerg Beer, Raimund Muscheler, Michael N. Evans, William Showers, Sharon Hoffmann, Rusty Lotti-Bond, Irka Hajdas, Georges Bonani

Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900–2000 global surface warming (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L05708, 2006)
- N. Scafetta, B. J. West

Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L17718, 2006)
- N. Scafetta, B. J. West

Possible solar forcing of century-scale drought frequency in the northern Great Plains
(Geology, Vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 263-266, Mar 1999)
-Zicheng Yu, Emi Ito

Regional tropospheric responses to long-term solar activity variations
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 40, Issue 7, Pages 1167-1172, 2007)
- O.M. Raspopov, V.A. Dergachev, A.V. Kuzmin, O.V. Kozyreva, M.G. Ogurtsov, T. Kolström and E. Lopatin

Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earth’s climate (PDF)
(Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50, pp. 955-968, 2007)
- Richard Mackey

Solar activity variations and global temperature
(Energy (Oxford), Vol. 18, no. 12, pp. 1273-1284, 1993)
- Friis-Christensen, Eigil

Solar and climate signal records in tree ring width from Chile (AD 1587–1994)
(Planetary and Space Science, Volume 55, Issues 1-2, Pages 158-164, January 2007)
- Nivaor Rodolfo Rigozoa, Daniel Jean Roger Nordemann, Heitor Evangelista da Silva, Mariza Pereira de Souza Echer, Ezequiel Echer

Solar Arctic-Mediated Climate Variation on Multidecadal to Centennial Timescales: Empirical Evidence, Mechanistic Explanation, and Testable Consequences (PDF)
(Physical Geography, Volume 30, Number 2, March-April 2009)
- Willie H. Soon

Solar correlates of Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude climate variability
(International Journal of Climatology, Volume 22, Issue 8 , Pages 901 - 915, 27 May 2002)
- Ronald E. Thresher

Solar cycles 24 and 25 and predicted climate response
(Energy & Environment, Volume 17, Number 1, pp. 29-35, January 2006)
- David C. Archibald

Solar Cycle Variability, Ozone, and Climate
(Science, Vol. 284. no. 5412, pp. 305 - 308, 9 April 1999)
- Drew Shindell, David Rind, Nambeth Balachandran, Judith Lean, Patrick Lonergan

Solar Forcing of Changes in Atmospheric Circulation, Earth's Rotation and Climate (PDF)
(The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, Vol. 2, pp. 181-184, 2008)
- Adriano Mazzarella

Solar Forcing of Drought Frequency in the Maya Lowlands
(Science, Vol. 292. no. 5520, pp. 1367 - 1370, 18 May 2001)
- David A. Hodell, Mark Brenner, Jason H. Curtis, Thomas Guilderson

Solar total irradiance variation and the global sea surface temperature record
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 96, NO. D2, Pages 2835–2844, 1991)
- George C. Reid

Solar variability and climate change: Geomagnetic aa index and global surface temperature
(Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 25, Issue 7, p. 1035-1038, 1998)
- E.W. Cliver, V. Boriakoff, J. Feynman

Solar variability and ring widths in fossil trees
(Il Nuovo Cimento C, Volume 19, Number 4, July 1996)
- S. Cecchini, M. Galli, T. Nanni, L. Ruggiero

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia (PDF)
(Space Science Reviews, Volume 125, Issue 1-4, pp. 67-79, Friday, December 22, 2006)
- J. Beer, M. Vonmoos, R. Muscheler

Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth's temperature
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L08203, 2007)
- H. B. Hammel, G. W. Lockwood

Sun-Climate Linkage Now Confirmed
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 123-130(8), January 2009)
- Adriano Mazzarella

Surface warming by the solar cycle as revealed by the composite mean difference projection
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, L14703, 2007)
- Charles D. Camp, Ka Kit Tung

The 60-year solar modulation of global air temperature: the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation connection
(Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 88, Numbers 3-4, March 2007)
- Adriano Mazzarella

The link between the solar dynamo and climate - The evidence from a long mean air temperature series from Northern Ireland
(Irish Astronomical Journal, vol. 21, no. 3-4, p. 251-254, 09/1994)
- C.J. Butler, D.J. Johnston

The Sun–Earth Connection in Time Scales from Years to Decades and Centuries
(Space Science Reviews, v. 95, Issue 1/2, p. 625-637, 2001)
- T.I. Pulkkinen, H. Nevanlinna, P.J. Pulkkinen, M. Lockwood

Understanding Solar Behaviour and its Influence on Climate
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Numbers 1-2, pp. 145-159(15), January 2009)
- Timo Niroma

Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 113, Issue A11, November 4, 2008)
- Nir J. Shaviv

Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years (PDF)
(Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, L16712, 2005)
- Willie H. Soon

Variations of solar coronal hole area and terrestrial lower tropospheric air temperature from 1979 to mid-1998: astronomical forcings of change in earth's climate? (PDF)
(New Astronomy, Volume 4, Issue 8, Pages 563-579, January 2000)
- Willie H. Soon, Sallie L Baliunas, Eric S. Posmentier, P. Okeke

Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate
(Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, Volume 57, Issue 8, Pages 835-845, July 1995)
- K. Lassen, E. Friis-Christensen

Variations in Radiocarbon Concentration and Sunspot Activity
(Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 66, p.273, 01/1961)
- Stuiver, M.

Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
(Science, Vol. 194. no. 4270, pp. 1121 - 1132, 10 December 1976)
- J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton

What do we really know about the Sun-climate connection?
(Advances in Space Research, Volume 20, Issue 4-5, p. 913-921, 1997)
- Eigil Friis-Christensen, Henrik Svensmark

Will We Face Global Warming in the Nearest Future?
(Geomagnetism i Aeronomia, Vol. 43, pp. 124-127, 2003)
- V. S. Bashkirtsev, G. P. Mashnich


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Jim Matkin said...

This blog written in 2008 is spot on with the latest climate science. Here are sites that support the view that natural solar cycles are "the driving force" of climate chnage.A new Chinese study published by NATURE April 2017 confirms climate change comes from natural cycles. This research is based on the longest actual temperature data of more than 400 years from 1659 to 2013, including the period of anthropogenic warming.

The authors Geli Wang & Peicai Yang and Xiuji Zhou are scientists at the CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCE and Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China 中国气象科学研究院
Also Professor Carl-Otto Wiess, adviser to the European Institute for Climate and Energy; Former President of the National Metrology Institute of Germany, Braunschweig, used spectral analysis of all long-term climate data to show that all climate change is due to natural cycles, and there is no signal at all from our CO2 emissions. Lüdecke, H. J., Hempelmann, A., & Weiss, C. O. (2013). Lüdecke, H. J., Hempelmann, A., & Weiss, C. O. (2013). Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records. Climate of the Past, 9(1), 447-452. 9(1), 447-452. “"

Jim Matkin said...

Excellent compilation of important research that continues to be germane. Here is a paper from Beijing published in NATURE that concludes solar changes are the driving force of climate not Green House Gases."The authors Geli Wang & Peicai Yang and Xiuji Zhou are scientists at the CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCE and Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China 中国气象科学研究院

ANTHROPOGENIC (human activity). The driving forces are
“the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle and the Hale sunspot cycle, respectively.”
The title of the study published in the prestigious NATURE Journal is:

Identification of the driving forces of climate change using the longest instrumental temperature record"