Saturday, June 01, 2013

The Statistical Destruction of the 97% Consensus


Dr. Richard Tol has been tweeting a statistical destruction of the "97% consensus" study, Cook et al. (2013) by educating co-author Dana Nuccitelli as to why his "sample" is not representative.

"In his defense, [Dana] has had limited exposure to stats at uni" - Richard Tol

Including "global" before "climate change", Cook et al. dropped 75% of papers and changed disciplinary distribution.

Including "global" before "climate change", Cook et al. dropped many papers by eminent climate researchers.

Including "global" before "climate change", Cook et al. dropped 33 of the 50 most cited papers.

Choosing exclusive WoS over inclusive Scopus, Cook et al. dropped 35% of papers and changed disciplinary distribution.

As Dr. Tol so eloquently put it,
"[Dana] I think your sampling strategy is a load of nonsense." - Richard Tol


CV of Dr. Richard Tol: M.Sc. Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands (1992); Ph.D. Economics (Thesis: "A decision-analytic treatise of the enhanced greenhouse effect"), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands (1997); Researcher, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands (1992-2008); Visiting Researcher, Canadian Centre for Climate Research, University of Victoria, Canada (1994); Visiting researcher, Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University College London, United Kingdom (1995); Acting Programme Manager Quantitative Environmental Economics, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands (1998-1999); Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University (1998-2000); Board Member, Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University (2000-2006); Lead Author, IPCC (2001); Contributing Author and Expert Reviewer, IPCC (2001, 2007); Associate Editor, Environmental and Resource Economics Journal (2001-2006); Adjunct Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University (2000-2008); Michael Otto Professor of Sustainability and Global Change, Department of Geosciences and Department of Economics, Hamburg University, Germany (2000-2006); Editor, Energy Economics Journal (2003-Present); Visiting Research Scholar, Princeton Environmental Institute and Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Princeton University (2005-2006); Research Professor, Economic and Social Research Institute, Ireland (2006-2011); Research Fellow, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University (2007-2010); Associate Editor, Economics E-Journal (2007-Present); Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Trinity College, Ireland (2010-2011); Professor of the Economics of Climate Change, Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands (2008-Present); Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom (2012-Present)

1 comment:

John Taylor said...

I hope Tol, or someone, will publish something on this soon. The methodology in the Cook study, once read in detail, is so patently flawed as to be obvious to a reasonably-educated layman.