Eminent Physicists Skeptical of AGW Alarm

Seven Eminent Physicists; Freeman Dyson, Ivar Giaever (Nobel Prize), Robert Laughlin (Nobel Prize), Edward Teller, Frederick Seitz, Robert Jastrow and William Nierenberg, all skeptical of "man-made" global warming (AGW) alarm.

"My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models." - Freeman Dyson

Freeman Dyson, Scholar, Winchester College, UK (1936-1941), B.A. Mathematics, Cambridge University, UK (1945), Operations Research, R.A.F. Bomber Command, UK (1943-1945), Research Fellow, Trinity College, Cambridge University, UK (1946–1947), Commonwealth Fellow, Cornell University (1947–1948), Commonwealth Fellow, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton University (1948–1949), Research Fellow, University of Birmingham (1949–1951), Professor of Physics, Cornell University (1951-1953), Fellow, Royal Society (1952), Professor of Physics, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton University (1953-1994), Chairman, Federation of American Scientists (1962-1963), Member, National Academy of Sciences (1964), Danny Heineman Prize, American Physical Society (1965), Lorentz Medal, Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (1966), Visiting Professor, Yeshiva University (1967-1968), Hughes Medal, The Royal Society (1968), Max Planck Medal, German Physical Society (1969), J. Robert Oppenheimer Memorial Prize, Center for Theoretical Studies (1970), Visiting Professor, Max Planck Institute for Physics and Astrophysics (1974-1975), Corresponding Member, Bavarian Academy of Sciences (1975), Harvey Prize, Technion - Israel Institute of Technology (1977), Wolf Prize in Physics, Wolf Foundation of Herzlia, Israel (1981), National Books Critics Circle Award - Non-Fiction (1984), Andrew Gemant Award, American Institute of Physics (1988), Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, Phi Beta Kappa Society (1988), Honorary Fellow, Trinity College, Cambridge University, UK (1989), Foreign Associate of the Academy of Sciences, Paris, France (1989), Member, National Research Council Commission on Life Sciences (1989-1991), Britannica Award (1990), Matteucci Medal, National Academy of Sciences dei Quaranta, Italy (1990), Oersted Medal, American Association of Physics Teachers (1991), Enrico Fermi Award, United States Department of Energy (1993), Montgomery Fellow, Dartmouth College (1994), Wright Prize, Harvey Mudd College (1994), Antonio Feltrinelli International Prize, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy (1996), Lewis Thomas Prize, Rockefeller University (1996), Joseph A. Burton Forum Award, American Physical Society (1999), Rydell Professor, Gustavus Adolphus College (1999), Honorary Member, London Mathematical Society (2000), Templeton Prize (2000), Member, NASA Advisory Council (2001-2003), Page-Barbour lecturer, University of Virginia (2004), Member, committee on Next Generation Biowarfare (2004-2005), Professor Emeritus of Physics, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton University (1994-Present), 21 Honorary Degrees

Notable: Unification of Quantum Electrodynamics Theory.

Signed: Global Warming Petition Project

"I'm a skeptic. ...Global Warming it's become a new religion. You're not supposed to be against Global Warming. You have basically no choice. And I tell you how many scientists support that. But the number of scientists is not important. The only thing that's important is if the scientists are correct; that's the important part." - Ivar Giaever

Ivar Giaever, M.E., Norwegian Institute of Technology (1952), Ph.D. Theoretical Physics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (1964), Engineer, Advanced Engineering Program, General Electric Company (1954–1956), Applied Mathematician, Research and Development Center, General Electric Company (1956–1958), Researcher, Research and Development Center, General Electric Company (1958–1988), Guggenheim Fellowship, Biophysics, Cambridge University (1969-1970), Oliver E. Buckley Condensed Matter Prize (1965), Nobel Prize in Physics (1973), Member, American Academy of Arts & Sciences (1974), Member, National Academy of Science (1974), Member, National Academy of Engineering (1975), Adjunct Professor of Physics, University of California, San Diego (1975), Visiting Professor, Salk Institute for Biological Studies (1975), Professor of Physics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (1988-2005), Founder and Chief Technology Officer, Applied BioPhysics (1991-Present), Professor Emeritus of Physics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (2005-Present)

Notable: Nobel Prize in Physics.

"The geologic record suggests that climate ought not to concern us too much when we’re gazing into the energy future, not because it’s unimportant, but because it’s beyond our power to control." - Robert Laughlin

Robert Laughlin, A.B. Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley (1972), Ph.D. Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1979), Fellow, IBM (1976-1978), Postdoctoral Member, Technical Staff, Bell Laboratories (1979–1981), Research Physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (1982–2004), Associate Professor of Physics, Stanford University (1985–1989), E.O. Lawrence Award for Physics (1985), Oliver E. Buckley Condensed Matter Prize (1986), Eastman Kodak Lecturer, University of Rochester (1989), Professor of Physics, Stanford University (1989–1993), Fellow, American Academy of Arts & Sciences (1990), Anne T. and Robert M. Bass Professor of Physics, Stanford University (1992–Present), Professor of Applied Physics, Stanford University (1993-2007), Member, National Academy of Sciences (1994), Nobel Prize in Physics (1998), Board Member, Science Foundation Ireland (2002-2003), President, Asia-Pacific Center for Theoretical Physics (2004-2006), President, Korean Advanced Institute for Science and Technology (2004–2006)

Notable: Nobel Prize in Physics.

"Society's emissions of carbon dioxide may or may not turn out to have something significant to do with global warming--the jury is still out." - Edward Teller

Edward Teller, B.S. Chemical Engineering, University of Karlsruhe (1928), Ph.D. Physics, University of Leipzig (1930), Research Associate, University of Leipzig (1929–1931), Research Associate, University of Göttingen (1931–1933), Rockefeller Fellow, Institute for Theoretical Physics, Copenhagen (1933–1934), Lecturer, London City College (1934), Professor of Physics, George Washington University (1935-1941), Researcher, Manhattan Project, Chicago Metallurgical Laboratory (1942-1943), Group Leader, Manhattan Project, Los Alamos National Laboratory (1943-1946), Professor of Physics, University of Chicago (1946-1952), Member, National Academy of Sciences (1948), Assistant Director, Los Alamos National Laboratory (1949-1952), Developer, Hydrogen Bomb (1951), Founder, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (1952), Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley (1953-1975), Associate Director, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (1954–1958), Harrison Medal (1955), Albert Einstein Award (1958), Director, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (1958-1960), Professor, Hoover Institution on War Revolution and Peace, Stanford University (1960–1975), Enrico Fermi Award, United States Atomic Energy Commission (1962), Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution (1975-2003), Professor Emeritus of Physics, University of California, Berkeley (1975–2003), National Medal of Science (1982), Presidential Medal of Freedom (2003), (Died: September 9, 2003)

Notable: Manhattan Project Member, Developer of the Hydrogen Bomb and Founder of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory.

Signed: Global Warming Petition Project

"Research data on climate change do not show that human use of hydrocarbons is harmful. To the contrary, there is good evidence that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful." - Frederick Seitz

Frederick Seitz, A.B. Mathematics, Stanford University (1932), Ph.D. Physics, Princeton University (1934), Proctor Fellow, Princeton University (1934–1935), Instructor in Physics, University of Rochester (1935–1936), Assistant Professor of Physics, University of Rochester (1936–1937), Research Physicist, General Electric Company (1937–1939), Assistant Professor of Physics, University of Pennsylvania (1939–1941), Associate Professor of Physics, University of Pennsylvania (1941-1942), Professor of Physics, Carnegie Institute of Technology (1942-1949), Research Professor of Physics, University of Illinois (1949-1965), Chairman, American Institute of Physics (1954-1960), President Emeritus, American Physical Society (1961), President Emeritus, National Academy of Sciences (1962-1969), Graduate College Dean, University of Illinois (1964-1965), President Emeritus, Rockefeller University (1968-1978), Franklin Medal (1965), American Institute of Physics Compton Medal (1970), National Medal of Science (1973), (Died: March 2, 2008)

Notable: Pioneer in the field of solid-state physics and President Emeritus of the National Academy of Sciences.

Signed: Global Warming Petition Project

"The scientific facts indicate that all the temperature changes observed in the last 100 years were largely natural changes and were not caused by carbon dioxide produced in human activities." - Robert Jastrow

Robert Jastrow, A.B. Physics, Columbia University (1944), A.M. Physics, Columbia University (1945), Ph.D. Physics, Columbia University (1948), Adjunct Professor of Geophysics, Columbia University (1944–1982), Postdoctoral Fellow, Leiden University, Netherlands (1948-1949), Scholar, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton University (1949-1950, 1953), Assistant Professor of Physics, Yale University (1953-1954), Chief, NASA Theoretical Division (1958-61), Founding Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (1961-1981), NASA Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement (1968), Professor of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College (1981-1992), Chairman, Mount Wilson Institute (1992–2003), (Died: February 8, 2008)

Notable: Founding Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and hosted more than 100 CBS-TV network programs on space science.

Signed: Global Warming Petition Project

"The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. ...These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness." - William Nierenberg

William Nierenberg, B.S. Physics, City College of New York (1939), M.A. Physics, Columbia University (1942), Ph.D. Physics, Columbia University (1947), Researcher, Manhattan Project, Columbia SAM Laboratories (1942-1945), Instructor in Physics, Columbia University (1946–1948), Assistant Professor of Physics, University of Michigan (1948–1950), Associate Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley (1950-1953), Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley (1954–1965), Assistant Secretary General for Scientific Affairs, NATO (1960-1962), Director Emeritus, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (1965-1986), Member, White House Task Force on Oceanography (1969-1970), Member, National Academy of Sciences (1971), Chairman, National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere (1971-1975), Member, National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmosphere (1971–1978), Member, National Science Board (1972–1978, 1982–1988), Chairman, Advisory Council, NASA (1978-1982), Member, Space Panel, Naval Studies Board, National Research Council (1978–1984), Member, Council of the National Academy of Sciences (1979-1982), Chairman, Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, National Academy of Sciences (1980–1983), NASA Distinguished Public Service Medal (1982), (Died: September 10, 2000)

Notable: Manhattan Project Member and Director Emeritus of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

Signed: Global Warming Petition Project


Peer-Reviewed Climate Publications:

Can we control the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?
(Energy, Volume 2, Issue 3, pp. 287-291, September 1977)
- Freeman J. Dyson

Evidence for long-term brightness changes of solar-type stars
(Nature, Volume 348, Number 6301, pp. 520-523, December 1990)
- Robert Jastrow

Evidence on the climate impact of solar variations
(Energy, Volume 18, Issue 12, pp. 1285-1295, December 1993)
- Robert Jastrow

Global warming: What does the science tell us?
(Energy, Volume 16, Issues 11-12, pp. 1331-1345, November-December 1991)
- Robert Jastrow, William Nierenberg, Frederick Seitz

Keeping cool on global warming
(The Electricity Journal, Volume 5, Issue 6, pp. 32-41, July 1992)
- Frederick Seitz, William Nierenberg, Robert Jastrow


Rebuttals:
A Rebuttal to "Jason and the Secret Climate Change War" (PDF) (Nicolas Nierenberg, Walter R. Tschinkel, Victoria J. Tschinkel)
Clouding the Truth: A Critique of Merchants of Doubt (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)
Early Climate Change Consensus at the National Academy: The Origins and Making of Changing Climate (PDF) (Nicolas Nierenberg, Walter R. Tschinkel, Victoria J. Tschinkel)
Truth Teller (National Review)
Vanity Scare (TCS Daily)
With age really DOES come wisdom: Scientists prove older people are less impulsive (The Daily Mail, UK)

Brain scans had identified four brain regions that contribute to wisdom. The elderly have more activity in these regions than the young, which results in their wiser judgments.

References:
2008 - 58th Meeting of Nobel Laureates (PDF) (University of Hartford)
Do people cause global warming? (The Heartland Institute)
Heretical thoughts about science and society (Edge: The Third Culture)
Letter from Frederick Seitz (Petition Project)
The Planet Needs a Sunscreen (The Wall Street Journal)
What the Earth Knows (The American Scholar)


Videos:

Freeman Dyson


William Nierenberg

Rebuttal to "Crock of the Week - Flogging the Scientists"

Peter Sinclair AKA "Greenman" a cartoonist and Al Gore disciple has been hard at work creating YouTube videos that smear skeptics and their arguments. The following is a complete rebuttal to his "Crock of the Week - Flogging the Scientists" video.


1. Sinclair claims that as a "non-scientist" he has found that the most "reliable" scientific information comes from "respected" peer-reviewed science journals. The problem with this statement is the use of subjective criteria. First he is admitting to be a "non-scientist" so why would anyone take his advice on where to find "reliable" scientific information or on what journals are more "respected"? Regardless what is considered "reliable" or "respected" is purely subjective and cannot be objectively determined. Now it is true that within the scientific community more scientific credibility is applied to "peer-reviewed" publications which is why skeptics have extensively published in peer-reviewed journals. Being peer-reviewed however does not mean something is a scientific truth, only that it has passed a certain level of scrutiny within the scientific community. There are documented cases of the corruption of this process,

A Climatology Conspiracy? (David H. Douglass, Ph.D. Professor of Physics; John R. Christy, Ph.D. Professor of Atmospheric Science)
Caspar and the Jesus paper (PDF) (Andrew W. Montford, B.Sc. Chemistry)
Circling the Bandwagons: My Adventures Correcting the IPCC (PDF) (Ross McKitrick, Ph.D. Professor of Environmental Economics)
The Double Standard in Environmental Science (PDF) (Stanley W. Trimble, Ph.D. Professor of Geography)


2. Sinclair then uses a strawman argument by comparing peer-reviewed journals to the conspiracy website InfoWars, the conservative news site WorldNetDaily and the UK's conservative newspaper the Daily Mail. Despite these site's excellent coverage of Climategate (even conspiracy sites get some things right) they are never confused by prominent skeptics with peer-reviewed journals.


3. In an attempt to attack the Daily Mail article, "Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995" Sinclair uses an article from what he calls, the "conservative" Economist magazine. The problem is the Economist magazine is not conservative,

"...the Economist's philosophy has always been liberal, not conservative" - Former Economist Editor Bill Emmott

This appears to be a failed attempt by Sinclair to pretend a conservative source agrees with his position.


4. Sinclair uses a quote from the original BBC interview with Phil Jones that actually makes the skeptics case,

BBC: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming?

Phil Jones: Yes

This question originated with Dr. Richard Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT who has been trying to make a point about the ridiculously small fractions of a degree in temperature change that are being debated. When standard error bars are applied to these, you are left with no statistically significant warming in 15 years. Without statistical significance you cannot rule out that any recent positive warming trend did not occur by chance or in this case, measurement error.


5. Sinclair then dishonestly implies that Dr. Lindzen is "denying" the mild warming trend over the last century which is blatantly not true,

"Most of the climate community has agreed since 1988 that global mean temperatures have increased on the order of one degree Fahrenheit over the past century," - Dr. Richard Lindzen

6. Sinclair harps on a recently retracted paper on sea-level rise that for obvious reasons was widely discussed on skeptic websites prior to it's retraction. The retraction he claims was based on the findings of a recent PNAS paper by Steven Rahmstorf who's 2007 paper on the exact same subject in the journal Science was discredited,

- Comment on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise" (PDF)
(Science, Volume 317, Number 5846, pp. 1866, September 2007)
- Torben Schmith, Soren Johansen, Peter Thejll

"We revisit the application of the statistical methods used and show that estimation of the regression coefficient is not robust."

- Comment on "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise" (PDF)
(Science, Volume 317, Number 5846, pp. 1866, September 2007)
- Simon Holgate, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Philip Woodworth, Simon Brewer

"Although we agree that there is considerable uncertainty in the prediction of future sea-level rise, this approach does not meaningfully contribute to quantifying that uncertainty."

7. Sinclair then goes off promoting Al Gore like fear-mongering of over 6 ft of sea-level rise by the end of the century, ignoring both the IPCC and a recent review of the science in an article in the journal Nature,

"This issue was highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 assessment report. They concluded that 'understanding of these effects is too limited ... to provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise' in the twenty-first century. Excluding these effects, they projected a sea level rise of 0.26–0.59 metres [10-23 inches] by the 2090s for their highest-emissions scenario.

The available evidence still doesn't allow us to say with certainty whether sea level rise could exceed the IPCC's projections.

...Although increases of up to two metres this century can't be ruled out, this does not mean that they are inevitable or even likely."

Other peer-reviewed papers show even less to worry about,

New Perspective on Global Warming & Sea Level Rise: Modest Future Rise with Reduced Threat (PDF)
(Energy & Environment, Volume 20, Number 7, pp. 1067-1074, November 2009)
- Madhav L. Khandekar

"It is concluded that the best guess value of Sea Level Rise for the next 100 years is a relatively modest 23 cm +/− 5 cm [9 +/- 2 inches] which poses little threat to coastal areas of the world either at present or in future."

8. Sinclair repeats the big lie that the Climategate emails do not undermine climate science. The significance of the emails and how they undermined the credibility of the climate science community and thus the science itself was exposed in a 2010 U.S. Senate report,

The CRU emails show scientists,
- Obstructing release of damaging data and information;
- Manipulating data to reach preconceived conclusions;
- Colluding to pressure journal editors who published work questioning the climate science “consensus”; and
- Assuming activist roles to influence the political process


9. Sinclair lies that the South Dakota legislature passed a resolution urging schools not to teach the science of climate change, when the resolution says no such thing. It explicitly states that they recommend some points be included with the instruction of global warming. You can pause the video and read this for yourself. The wording of the resolution is also poor and it is fairly clear the legislature meant astronomical not astrological and geothermal not thermological. All the more reason politicians should consult scientists if they are not sure about scientific terminology.


10. Finally Sinclair lies about Marc Morano's comment about public flogging when the website it was quoted from explicitly says, "He doesn't wish anyone harm". For someone who likes to use clips from Monty Python Sinclair sure has a hard time identifying sarcastic remarks from those he is trying to smear.


References:
A note from Richard Lindzen on statistically significant warming (Watts Up With That?, March 11, 2008)
A sea of uncertainty (Nature, April 6, 2010)
Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995 (Daily Mail, UK, February 14, 2010)
Climate of Fear (PDF) (The Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2006)
'Consensus' Exposed: The CRU Controversy (PDF) (83 pgs) (United States Senate, February 2010)
The New Big Lie: Climategate Emails Are Not Significant (Canada Free Press, December 14, 2009)